Research on Investment Estimation of Construction Projects Based on Fuzzy Neural Network
范露康FAN Lu-kang;宋思亮?SONG Li-liang;梁彪LIANG Biao;李盛初LI Sheng-chu
(①中国矿业大学(北京)力学与建筑工程学院,北京100083;②辽宁工程技术大学软件学院,葫芦岛125105;
③辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院,葫芦岛125105)
(①School of Mechanies and Architectural Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology,Beijing, Beijing 100083, China；②School of Software, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao 125105,China；③School of Business Administration, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao 125105,China )
摘要:在建设工程项目的全过程周期的各阶段估算中,对项目的全过程周期中作用最强的是投资估算阶段。它是建设项目投资决策的基础,也是编制项目投资方案和管理投资的有效手段。本文通过深入研究建设工程项目投资估算影响要素,剖析影响结果的重要因素,从而分析建设工程咨询公司在投资估算的数据,系统钻研国内外在建设工程项目领域投资估算的举措、估算模型,最终构建基于模糊神经网络的投资估算模型。在模糊神经网络支持下的建设工程项目投资估算模型计算结果整体误差率较低,所以在建设工程项目可行性研究阶段的投资估算中已基本可以满足其要求,以及满足在工程初步设计阶段的资金概算要求。神经网络分别建立估算模型能够在建设工程项目中提供较好的应用效果,提高了估算精度,为建设工程项目投资估算提供更加精确的参考。
Abstract: In the whole process of the construction project cycle of each stage of the estimation, the most powerful effect on the wholeprocess of the project cycle is the investment estimation stage. It is the basis of investment decision of construction project, but also theeffeetive means to compile project investment plan and manage investment. This paper, through in-depth study of the factors affecting theinvestment estimation of construction projects, analyze the important factors affecting the results, so as to analyze the data of the investmentestimation of construction engineering consulting companies, systematically study the measures and estimation models of investmentestimation in the field of construction engineering projects at home and abroad, and finally build the investment estimation model based onfuzzy neural network. The overall error rate of the caleulation results of the construction project investment estimation model supported bythe fuzzy neural network is low, so it can basieally meet the requirements of the construction projeet investment estimation in the feasibilitystudy stage, and meet the requirements of the preliminary design stage of the project. The estimation models established by neural networkcan provide better application effect in constnuction projects, improve the estimation accuraey, and provide more accurate reference for theinvestment estimation of construction projects.
关键词:投资估算;模糊神经网络;建设工程项目
Key words: estimation of investment; fuzzy neural network; construction engineering project
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