Risk Prediction Construction Project Based on Neural Network
王建芹WANG Jian-qin
山东省人民防空办公室人防工程管理中心,济南250014
Project Management Center of Shandong Provincial Civil Air Defence Office,Ji'nan 250014,China
摘要:在人防工程项目领域,风险识别和管理对于项目顺利完工至关重要。然而,传统的识别风险的方法识别效果有限,而且往往是无效的。随着计算机技术的发展,新的方法已经被开发出来,以提高风险评估的科学准确性。本文深入分析了人防工程项目中的风险因素,并提出了一种综合的方法,使用层次分析法(AHP)进行权重分配,进而采用人工神经网络(ANN)进行风险识别。通过实际应用,结果表明,通过将ANN与AHP相结合,可以预测风险并将其归类为质量和成本风险,使管理者在确保质量控制的同时优化经济效益。这种方法为施工管理人员提供了一个有效的工具。
Abstract: In the field of civil air defense engineering projects，risk identification and management are crnucial for the smoothcompletion of projects. However,traditional methods for identifying risks have limited efiectiveness and are ofen ineffective. Wih thedevelopment of computer technology, new methods have been developed to improve the scientific accuracy of risk assessment. This articleprovides an in-depth analysis of the risk factors in civil air defense engincering projects and proposes a comprehensive method that usesAnalytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for weight allocation, and then uses ArtificialNeural Network (ANN) for risk identification.Throughpractical applications, the resuls indicate that by combining ANN wih AHP, risks can be predicted and classified as quality and cost risks,enabling managers to optimize economic benefits while ensuring quality control. This method providles an effective tool for constructionmanagement personnel.
关键词:工程;层次分析法;神经网络;风险预测
Key words: engineering; analytic hierarchy process; neural network; risk prediction
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