Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Prefabricated Building Construction Risk Based on Portfolio Empowerment
李旋①③LI Xuan;姜安民①②JIANG An-min;董彦辰①② DONG Yan-chen;刘霁①LIU Ji
①湖南城建职业技术学院,湘潭411100;
②中南林业科技大学土木工程学院,长沙410004;
③长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,长沙410114
①Hunan Urban Construction College,Xiangtan 411100,China;
②School of Civil Engineering,Central South University of Forestry and 'Technology , Changsha 410004, China;
③School of Traffic and 'Transportion Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology ,Changsha 410114,China
摘要:装配式建筑施工过程中存在的风险因素较多,采用科学的方法对风险因素做出评价,并针对评价结果采取相应应对措施，是降低装配式建筑施工风险发生概率的有效途径.首先,对装配式建筑施工风险因素进行识别,建立装配式建筑施工风险评价指标体系;其次,根据风险发生的概率及带来的损失确定风险评价等级;再次,运用0-6评分与变异系数法确定指标组合权重,基于该权重构建装配式建筑施工风险评价模型。最后,运用该模型对A市某装配式混凝土结构住宅项目进行实例研究,并得出人的风险.物的风险.技术风险、管理风险及环境风险所处的风险等级分别为Ⅳ级.N级、Ⅱ级.Ⅳ级、Ⅲ级的结论,项目总休风险为Ⅳ级,即风险较低,处于可控状态。
Abstract: There are many risk factors in the construction process of prefalbricated building. lIt is an effective way to reduce theoccurence probability of prefabricated buildling construction risk by using scientific methods and taking coresponding countermeasuresaccording to the evaluation results. Firstly, the risk factors of prefabricated building construction are identified and the rsk evaluation indexsystem is established; secondly, the risk evaluation level is detemmined according to the probability of risk occurence and the loss; Thirlly,the index combination weight is delemined by 0-6 score and variation coefficient methodl, and the rsk evaluation model of prefabricatedbuilding construction is constructed based on the weight. Finally, using the model of A city A prefabricated concrelte strnucture residentialproject example studly, and it is concluded that the risk, risk, technical risk, management risk and environmental risk of grade, grade, grade,grade, grade，project overall risk, the risk is low, in a controllable state.
关键词:组合赋权;装配式建筑;施工风险;模糊综合评价法
Key words: combination empowerment; prefabricated building; construction risk; fuzy comprehensive evaluation method
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