Grey Prediction of Coal Mine Safety Accidents Based on GM (1,1) Model
彭贺 PENG He
（中煤科工集团沈阳研究院有限公司，抚顺 113122）
（China Coal Science and Industry Group Shenyang Research Institute Co.，Ltd.，Fushun 113122，China）
摘要：为了明确我国煤矿事故发生起数和死亡人数总的变化趋势，本文以灰色数学为理论基础，以 2019 年-2023 年的煤矿事故总起数和煤矿事故死亡人数为数据基础，建立了煤矿事故总起数 GM（1，1）模型、煤矿事故死亡人数 GM（1，1）模型，通过 MATLAB 软件编制程序，计算拟合值，确定建立的两个模型等级均为“好”，验证了模型的可靠性，根据建立的模型预测得到 2024 年、2025 年事故总起数为 68 起、50 起，事故死亡人数 154 人、125 人。预测表明，2024 年、2025 年事故总的起数和总的死亡人数趋于平缓，预测结果为煤矿行业制定安全管理对策提供有效的参考，具有重要的意义。
Abstract: In order to clarify the overall change trend of the number of coal mine accidents and the number of deaths in China, based on the grey mathematics theory and the total number of coal mine accidents and the number of coal mine deaths from 2019 to 2023 as the data base, this paper establishes the GM (1,1) model of the total number of coal mine accidents and the GM (1,1) model of the number of coal mine accidents. The program is compiled by MATLAB software to calculate the fitting value, and the two models are determined to be "good", The reliability of the model is verified. According to the established model, the total number of accidents in 2024 and 2025 is predicted to be 68 and 50, and the number of accident deaths is 154 and 125. The prediction shows that the total number of accidents and the total number of deaths in 2024 and 2025 tend to be flat. The prediction results provide an effective reference for the coal mine industry to formulate safety management countermeasures and are of great significance.
关键词：灰色预测；煤矿事故；煤矿事故死亡人数；GM（1,1）模型
Key words: grey prediction；coal mine accidents；number of deaths in coal mine accidents；GM (1,1) model
中图分类号：TD77+1 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-4311（2024）27-027-03 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-4311.2024.27.008
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